Hopes and Predictions for the Nerfs and Buffs in the Next Hearthstone Balance Patch

Day by day, we get closer to the next Hearthstone constructed format balance patch. This year, we did not get one early in January, unlike in 2020 and 2021. In 2022, we got one embedded into the Battlegrounds patch, which we know is coming on Tuesday. Blizzard kept the hype on Battlegrounds and only revealed the contents of the Standard and Wild changes at the last minute. Maybe this year will be the same? It’s either that or coming shortly after the Battlegrounds patch.

Either way, we know that Blizzard is working on a balance patch. Aleco, the Final Design Lead, tweeted this last week: “Had some great chats today about our next balance patch, which is coming later this month. We kept a close eye on all of your feedback over the break and will be keeping it in mind as we work on the update. … As mentioned in the patch notes, we’ll be looking to do some more spicy changes than we did in the previous patch.”

But what can we hope for from the balance patch? What are the pain points it should address? Let’s take a look at some of the issues in the current meta, and some of the potential solutions to them.

Astalor Bloodsworn – The Best Hearthstone Card of All Time

Astalor Bloodsworn. It is by far the most-played card in the history of Hearthstone. Astalor is currently included in more than 70% of all Standard decks and more than 36% of all Wild decks. Nothing else comes close to its popularity in Standard, and in Wild, only pre-nerf Prince Renathal reached such numbers. Crucially, Astalor is a win condition whereas Renathal is a support card for multiple archetypes.

Sure, people are quick to point out that the most broken things Astalor can do are facilitated by Brann Bronzebeard. The final form of Astalor deals 16 damage to random enemies, and Brann doubles that to 32, all of which can go face. However, Astalor is played in many decks even without Brann. Miracle Rogue uses Astalor. Imp Warlock uses Astalor. Even the new versions of Face Hunter use Astalor. Face Hunter, of all decks!

But how do you tone down the power level of Astalor? The solution I like the most consists of two parts: increase the mana cost and reduce the synergy with Brann. There are multiple ways to achieve this, but I like increasing the cost of the first form from 2 to 3 to make bouncing it a bit more difficult, increasing the cost of the final form from 8 to 9 to make various ways to play multiple copies of it more difficult, and separating the Manathirst and Battlecry portions of the damage of the final form to make Brann and Astalor deal 24 damage instead of 32 damage.

Astalor is a card with so many uses that it can be hard to target with nerfs. It is easy to err too much on the side of caution, but it is likewise easy to go too hard on it. It is not an enviable job to find the right balance for an all-around superstar card like that.

The High-Legend Meta: Rogue and Demon Hunter

The high-Legend meta is more extreme than ever. Almost half of the decks there are Rogue decks, many of them Miracle Rogues with some Thief Rogues around as well. The decks that are not Rogues are Quest Demon Hunters. However, there is a small glimmer of hope in the form of the recent uptick of Control Paladin that may be favored against both Miracle Rogue and Quest Demon Hunter. Control Paladin, in turn, loses to Thief Rogue, Ramp Druid, and Big Spell Mage.

If this meta is played to its logical conclusion, we could be looking at a future Miracle Rogue, Thief Rogue, Quest Demon Hunter, Control Paladin, and Big Spell Mage tier-one fighting it out in high Legend. Ramp Druid has too many big weaknesses to really succeed, but Big Spell Mage could be lifted up by Control Paladin’s success.

In a vacuum, Quest Demon Hunter is actually the weakest of these decks. Its ticket to fame has been its uniquely good matchup against both Rogue archetypes. Even if Control Paladin comes to keep Miracle Rogue in check, someone still needs to keep Thief Rogue in check, and that ensures the future of Quest Demon Hunter. Or would ensure it, anyway, if not for the upcoming balance changes.

It is hard to lift up new archetypes into the meta unless the stranglehold of the current top-tier decks is broken first. Primarily, this means taking a hard look at Rogue. The top Rogue cards are Wildpaw Gnoll and Potion Belt. They also have great synergy with each other, as a Potion Belt cast while you are still in disguise will discount the Gnoll by three mana! Two from the initial Concoctions, and one more from the combination.

Wildpaw Gnoll has already had its fair share of balance changes. It was originally a 5-mana 4/5, then a 6-mana 3/5, then a 5-mana 4/5 again, and now a 5-mana 3/5. If the plan is to slow Rogue down, increasing its mana cost again could do the job.

Is Potion Belt too strong apart from its synergy with the Gnoll? Possibly, yes. The Concoctions are incredibly powerful, especially when you can discover just the right ones for the job. Finding, or not finding, the Concoction to destroy a random enemy minion decided games at the World Championship. A random card from another class that costs three mana less can make the Rogue do anything. I hope that they will reduce or remove the discount on those random cards. This will slow Rogue down a little and prevent them from doing some completely unexpected things multiple turns earlier than they are possible for the original class. This would still keep Concoctions strong, but reduce some of the worst outliers.

The Main Contender to Rise Up to the Top

Whenever you make balance changes, you need to think about the next level of effects. Who benefits, if Rogue is nerfed? The main candidate is Shockspitter Hunter. It is already a great deck, and Miracle Rogue is its worst matchup. If nothing is done, Shockspitter Hunter could rise up to a dominant position.

The problem I keep coming up with regarding Shockspitter Hunter is that there is no obvious way to nerf it without killing it. Shockspitter itself was already nerfed once, from two mana to three mana. Make it four mana instead? I guess you could try that.

Alternatively, there is one card that you could consider touching, but I don’t think Blizzard will. Brann Bronzebeard. Without Brann, Shockspitter is not quite as scary. Blizzard has already teased that Brann will rotate out of the Core set – and the Standard format – in April. Perhaps they really should just go ahead and do it now. That would definitely qualify as spicy. I think they’d still need to touch Astalor because it is used in many decks that do not even use Brann and in all possible archetypes too from aggro to control, but looking at Shockspitter Hunter, I think I’m finally reaching the point where I cannot be a Brann-denier. Just remove it from Standard. We’ll all be better off for it.

Is This a Good Meta?

Some of the main outliers in the meta could be curbed with these nerfs to Astalor Bloodsworn, Wildpaw Gnoll, Potion Belt, and Brann Bronzebeard. Are we good now? No, this is just the beginning. This is the level of changes that have to be done. Maybe these exact changes, maybe something similar. They’re just cutting the overgrowth and making sure that other decks have space and light. Next up, we need to help those that are still struggling.

Dead Class By the Way

So, who is struggling? Warrior and Priest have overall win rates in the low 40s, so they are the main targets for some buffs. But they are not the only ones. Many classes have only one viable deck, and could use more. Death Knight, Druid, Shaman, and Warlock are not exactly doing great beyond their very best decks.

By far the most impactful buff Blizzard could make would be to make some Undead one-drops actually good. Right now, there are no Undead one-drops that you are happy to play on turn one. If there were, we could see decks like Swarm Shaman, Undead Aggro Druid, Unholy Death Knight, and Undead Aggro Priest have a chance. Whether it is Banshee or Arms Dealer that Blizzard chooses to buff matters little. Just give us some Undead minions that are worth playing in the early game.

As for Warrior, people have been trying to innovate with Control Warrior recently, but to no avail. You can build a Control Warrior deck to target a specific deck, but the moment it faces a more diverse meta, it crumbles. I’m not sure if anything can fix that with the current card pool. However, there is one Warrior card that I would like to see buffed. Reduce the mana cost of Light of the Phoenix by one. The card could give Warrior some much-needed card draw, and it could be played in both Control Warrior and Enrage Warrior. Even if Control Warrior still fails, Enrage Warrior could be improved. Right now, people are even pivoting back to pre-Lich King versions of Enrage Warrior and they do not seem to be losing much. Even when it is used, Light of the Phoenix is one of the weakest cards in the deck. A great candidate for a buff.

If you want more buffs for Warrior, Weapons Expert down to two mana could do. Right now, Weapons Expert only works in Control Warrior to tutor Outrider's Axe on curve. At a lower cost, it could also work in Enrage Warrior to tutor Imbued Axe. I admit it might be a bit too strong if it could be used for that. But it would definitely be a spicy way to make Warrior better.

If Blizzard wanted to help Undead Priest beyond adding a good one-drop for the aggro variant, they could improve Haunting Nightmare. The card used to be a recurring threat during testing, but Blizzard gave up on that because resurrecting a whole board of them felt too strong. Now it is completely useless. Some redesign of its Deathrattle could help boost Priest, and also promote the latest Priest archetypes that Blizzard has been pushing, so it seems like an easy target.

Warlock is actually a more difficult target to buff. The whole discard package is just nonsensical, to begin with. I don’t think they can polish it enough to make it shine. There is some more hope for Deathrattles. There should be some kind of Egg Zoo archetype hidden in there if they can change some cards to support it better. Warlock is in a tough spot though. No synergy between expansions this year makes it hard to build competitive decks.

Finally, there is Death Knight. Blizzard already buffed a number of Unholy Death Knight cards in December, but to no avail. They just balanced Death Knight quite low upon release. I fully expect there to be multiple balance changes to improve Death Knight and make it shine. It is the March of the Lich King expansion, after all! It is hard to predict what Blizzard would go for. Make Alexandros Mograine cheaper to make it Blood’s main win condition? There are also many underperforming Unholy cards like Bonedigger Geist, Army of the Dead, and Tomb Guardians. While Unholy can be helped through Neutral one-drops, it could also benefit from some class card buffs. Perhaps they will also try to find a spot for multi-rune decks. The double-Blood, single-Unholy handbuff deck is pretty much the only such attempt right now, and it is failing.

There Is Still Much March of the Lich King to Be Played

Overall, I am hopeful for the next balance patch. Blizzard might only need to touch a few cards to hit the worst outliers. That would create the space needed for new decks to rise, and then they could buff a bunch of struggling archetypes, including the new Death Knight class, and we could enter a new era of experimentation in the middle of the expansion. I think that could be a lot of fun.