How to Decide Which Hearthstone Packs to Buy – What Do I Spend My Gold On?

Which Hearthstone Packs Should I Buy?

This is a question both new and experienced Hearthstone players ask on a regular basis. At any given moment, card packs from as many as seven sets may be available for purchase within the in-game Hearthstone store, so it’s no wonder players are looking for guidance.

New and budget players, especially, need to take an informed approach to pack opening to maximize the value of the few packs that they do purchase, whether from in-game gold or real money.

Unfortunately, (as is often the case) there is no universal answer to this question. Deciding which Hearthstone packs to buy depends heavily on several factors, such as the age of the account, pack purchase history, the proximity of the next Standard rotation, and cards needed to complete specific decks.

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With all that in mind, this article will provide the recommendations for players to answer the question themselves and determine which Hearthstone packs are the best to buy.

Card Pack Changes

Beginning in August 2017, changes to Hearthstone Card Packs were implemented to ensure that players receive a Legendary card in their first 10 packs for a given set. These changes do NOT affect players who have opened ANY packs for a set prior to the change, even if the number of packs opened is less than 10. With this caveat aside, the changes, overall, can dramatically increase the expected Arcane Dust value of Hearthstone packs.

In most scenarios, players opening packs until they find a Legendary can expect an improvement over the typical expected value of 102.71 Arcane Dust per pack. Even in the worst possible scenario, players will receive an average Arcane Dust value of 86 from their first 10 packs which is a dramatic improvement over the typical worst-case average of 48 Arcane Dust per 10 packs.

More than anyone, these changes benefit new and budget-conscious players. A guaranteed Legendary for all older sets gives new accounts a brief boost to catch up their card collections. Likewise, casual and F2P players that open only a handful of packs per expansion can expect to get a Legendary sooner and, in turn, receive better value out of the few packs that they do open.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #1

Buy packs from any set for which you have not yet opened packs until a Legendary card is upacked.

Pro-tip: When implementing this recommendation, buy packs from the store one at a time. The pack changes guarantee a Legendary card in the first 10 packs, but you may open your Legendary before the 10th pack. Buying packs 10 at a time may result in unnecessary packs with regard to this strategy.

Classic Set

The Hearthstone Classic Set is the core set in the game. Introduced with the Hearthstone release, the Classic Set still has many of the game’s strongest cards. Even deep into Standard rotations, many of the Best Standard Ladder Meta Decks contain several cards from the Classic Set.

Additionally, aside from those added to the Hall of Fame, Classic Set cards are not subject to rotation out of the Standard format. Due to their evergreen nature, Classic Set cards are more likely to remain playable in the Standard format than those released with expansions.

As such, players’ primary goal should be to establish a collection of core cards from the Classic Set before moving on to packs from expansion.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #2

Build a strong foundation with the Classic Set.

Pro-tip: The weekly Tavern Brawls typically awards Classic Set card packs. This means that a Classic collection can be built more efficiently than in the past, slightly reducing the need to purchase packs from this set. With this in mind, those eyeing long-term pack efficiency may wish to buy very few Classic Card Packs knowing they’ll consistently earn one on a weekly basis.

Standard Rotation

After the preliminary packs are opened, the set each card pack belongs to remains relevant, especially for players eyeing the Standard format. Upon release of the first expansion each year, the sets available in the Standard format is updated. Expansions from two years prior are relegated to the Wild Format and are no longer available in Standard play mode.

As such, cards sets (with the exception of the Classic set) have an expiration date with regard to Standard. Keeping the Standard rotation in mind can help players determine which packs will give them longer

Year of the Mammoth (2017) Sets

The Year of the Mammoth consists of Journey to Un’Goro, Knights of the Frozen Throne, and a yet to be released expansion. All three sets will rotate out of the Standard format with the release of the first expansion in 2019. After a solid collection of Classic cards is accrued, players should focus on card packs from these sets because of their comparatively longer lifespan.

Year of the Kraken (2016) Sets

The Year of the Kraken consists of Whispers of the Old Gods and Mean Streets of Gadgetzan expansions (One Night in Karazhan as well, but that’s an Adventure). All sets will rotate out of the Standard format with the release of the first expansion in 2018. Because of their impending rotation, these sets should be less of a priority for players looking to maximize the long-term value of their collection for the Standard format.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #3

Focus on expansion card packs released in the current year.

Pro-tip: Arena rewards a card pack from the most recent set. If you are able to consistently average between 3 and 4 wins, you can get better value for your gold than buying packs outright. Check out our Arena Beginner’s Guide for more information!

Collection Status

The closer you get to a complete collection within a set, the less likely you are to open new cards. With the exception of Legendary cards, for which duplicates are no longer possible, the more cards accumulated from a particular set, the less likely it becomes that new cards will be opened. For this reason, the value of a given set decreases non-linearly with each pack opened.

Statistics courtesy of PityTracker.com can provide some insight into opening new cards at different collection percentage breakpoints.


With 0% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

  • 3.6 new Common cards.
  • 1.1 new Rare cards.
  • 0.2 new Epic cards.
  • 0.1 new Legendary cards
  • 5.0 new cards in TOTAL.

With 25% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

  • 2.2 new Common cards.
  • 0.9 new Rare cards.
  • 0.2 new Epic cards.
  • 0.1 new Legendary cards
  • 3.3 new cards in TOTAL.

With 50% of a set owned, in their next pack, players can expect an average of:

  • 0.9 new Common cards.
  • 0.6 new Rare cards.
  • 0.2 new Epic cards.
  • 0.1 new Legendary cards
  • 1.8 new cards in TOTAL.

With 75% of a set owned, in their next players can expect an average of:

  • 0.0 new Common cards.
  • 0.3 new Rare cards.
  • 0.2 new Epic cards.
  • 0.1 new Legendary cards
  • 0.5 new cards in TOTAL.

These diminishing returns are most relevant for players opening a substantial amount of packs within each set, but should still be taken into consideration by all players.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #4

Prioritize sets with the fewest cards owned.

Pro-tip: A full collection is an unrealistic expectation for most players. Instead, a quality collection should be the goal. Once the majority of powerful cards are obtained within a set, begin filling out your collection in others or start saving for the next expansion. Chasing a complete, or even nearly complete, set collection through pack opening alone is a fool’s errand.

Pity Timers

When it comes to Epics and Legendaries, it feels bad to go on a drought with these higher rarity cards. To account for this, Hearthstone implements pity timers for their card packs. Pity timers guarantee an Epic and Legendary cards within a given amount of packs.

  • Epic cards are guaranteed within 10 packs of the last Epic pull.
  • Legendary cards are guaranteed within 40 packs of the last Legendary pull.

At first, the existence of pity timers was uncovered by statistical evidence gathered by the Hearthstone community. Eventually, Chinese laws required game publishers to publicly release the probability of digital rewards. The associated announcement verified community’s assumption that the odds of opening higher rarity cards is variable.

Important to note, however, is that pity timers are specific to card sets. This means that the pity timers related to Classic packs operate independently from those in expansion packs. For example, opening a Classic Legendary card, such as Ysera has no effect on Knights of the Frozen Throne pity timers. Likewise, opening 20 Classic packs without a Legendary drop does not increase the probability of opening a Legendary in Journey to Un’Goro.

Essentially, the greater distance between the last opened Epic or Legendary, the greater chances of opening a card of that rarity. Players can use this information to their benefit and determine which card pack offers the higher probability of an Epic/Legendary drop.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #5

Monitor your pity timers to eke out additional Epic and Legendary cards.

Pro-tip: Several tools, such as PityTracker.com, can be used to track your pack openings and provide the probability of opening Legendary and Epic cards from your next pack. This knowledge can be used to determine the potential value of the next pack in a given set compared to others.

Deck Building

The main point of accumulating cards from packs is to build powerful decks. As such, specific decks should be kept in mind when targeting card packs. In general, packs that offer the most potential upgrades should be considered in addition to the recommendations above.

A simple spreadsheet can be used to get a better idea of which packs offer the most value in terms of deck building. First, create a list of cards needed from each set. Then, depending on the rarity of the cards on the list, determine which pack offers the highest likelihood of opening a card on the list. Targeting packs from that set should help fill in any gaps in decklists.

Hearthstone Top Decks Pack Opening Recommendation #6

Open packs that offer the most cards required to complete specific decks.

Pro-tip: Because the average Arcane Dust value of a Hearthstone pack is 102.71 and packs cost 100 Gold, Gold and Arcane Dust can be considered, for all intents and purposes, interchangeable. As such, opening packs in search of the one or two remaining cards (especially if they’re Epic or Legendary) to complete a deck is frequently a bigger waste of resources than simply crafting said cards.

TL;DR

Readers looking for a quick answer to the question of “Which Hearthstone packs should I buy?” can find a summary of the Hearthstone Top Decks recommendations below. After all, “Time is money, friend!”

  • Recommendation #1: Buy packs from any set for which you have not yet opened packs until a Legendary card is unpacked.
  • Recommendation #2: Build a strong foundation with the Classic Set.
  • Recommendation #3: Focus on expansion card packs released in the current year.
  • Recommendation #4: Prioritize sets with the fewest cards owned.
  • Recommendation #5: Monitor your pity timers to eke out additional Epic and Legendary cards.
  • Recommendation #6: Open packs that offer the most cards required to complete specific decks.

About the Author

A card game veteran, Roffle has been infatuated with Hearthstone since closed beta. These days, he spends most of his time tinkering with decks on ladder or earning gold in Arena (f2p btw). In particular, Roffle has a wealth of experience in competitive Wild Hearthstone, including a top 16 finish in the inaugural Wild Open Tournament and numerous high end of season finishes since the format’s inception. Follow him on Twitter or check out some of his articles on Roffle.net.

Roffle

A card game veteran, Roffle has been infatuated with Hearthstone since closed beta. These days, he spends most of his time tinkering with decks on ladder or earning gold in Arena (f2p btw). In particular, Roffle has a wealth of experience in competitive Wild Hearthstone, including a top 16 finish in the inaugural Wild Open Tournament and numerous high end of season finishes since the format’s inception.

Check out Roffle on Twitter or on their Website!

Leave a Reply

15 Comments

  1. Jose
    October 27, 2018 at 9:17 am

    Hello,
    I could really use some advice and direction. For the past few years I have really enjoyed playing Hearthstone but my play has been infrequent because of school and getting into and then getting started at a new career. Now I have more spare time which means more time to play more frequently but feel as though I am so far behind and can’t get ahead because players are destroying me with great cards and crazy legendary characters. How do I go about choosing the right deck packages to buy that will help me get up to speed and give me at least a fighting chance and maybe even a little edge?

  2. Khyrberos
    September 4, 2018 at 1:08 am

    This article perfectly introduced me to the ins-and-outs of this intriguingly complex decision; I (basically) just started a few days ago & really needed the help!

    Thanks.

  3. Nyix
    October 25, 2017 at 8:20 am

    Great article! Got a question though – does Cthun count as the guaranteed legendary in the first 10 whispers pack? Wondering if it’s worth to at least fish for one whispers and one gadgetzan legendary, even with them dropping out of standard soon.

    • Roffle - Author
      October 25, 2017 at 12:11 pm

      C’thun doesn’t count so you can still snag a quick Legendary from Whispers of the Old Gods packs even after getting him for free.

  4. chris
    October 20, 2017 at 1:05 pm

    i hit pay dirt with my FTP this month. opened Antonidas in my first 3 classic packs. and then i got Frost Lich Jaina as my free DK…. and then opened Sindragosa 4 packs into KFT. not mention you get C’thun with yoru first OG pack

    less then 20 packs and i have 4 legends in my collection.

    I’m destroying casual mode.

    • Roffle - Author
      October 20, 2017 at 1:51 pm

      Nice! The pack changes really make a pretty big difference for helping new accounts catch up. Certiainly there is still a substantial gap to overcome for new players, but it sounds like you’re making some good progress already.

  5. Harv
    October 20, 2017 at 5:31 am

    Good article.
    My pity timers are reset on Whispers, Mean Streets, and Un’goro.
    I reset the pity timer on KFT a couple of days ago.
    Now all gold is saving for next expansion.

    • Roffle - Author
      October 20, 2017 at 1:53 pm

      Good strategy! I’m in a similar spot, but will probably keep opening KFT packs for awhile, especially with the dual class Arena Event coming up soon!

      I have a habit of keeping a pretty full gold reserve in case a Heroic Tavern Brawl comes along, so I’ve got a decent amount saved for next expansion already.

  6. Advocaat
    October 19, 2017 at 9:01 pm

    I like the fact you mentioned that getting a full collection is unrealistic (without buying it of course). I think it’s important to realize because many people don’t. You already know my opinion. I think the whole system of getting cards in HS is really frustrating. Having a full collection = spending around $2500. Not having a full collection = not being able to adapt to the meta (which changes all the time) and not being able to use a full potential of those cards.

    You say “Quality collection is a goal” but in practice this is much harder than it sounds. The real f2p player has to do many difficult decisions all the time. Meta is very “legendary heavy.” There is no tier1 or tier2 deck without multiple legendaries right now. Those legendaries are almost impossible to effectivelly get via pack opennings so these players have to craft them. Because the meta evolution is unpredictable (even best pro players make bad predictions) they never know for sure which particular craft is going to contribute on their “quality collection” and which is gonna be 1600 dust wasted for nothing. That last part is actually painful because 1600 dust is a lot for a f2p player.

    You may think that fast adapting to the meta isn’t a big deal but you’d be wrong. Adapting to the meta is very important aspect of the game and good players do that on daily bases. Some cards suddenly get good and very unpredictably enter the meta. Who of the f2p players ever crafted cards like Velen to be prepared to highlander priest meta? Or even more currently – who of the f2p players had Prince Keleseth? And who of those players were willing to actually craft it after it become good? Because it’s not an easy decision at all. Paying 1600 dust for a bit spooky legendary that may or may not be viable in a few weeks/months is almost impossible choice for these players. Highlander priest is even another level. Because f2p players don’t have Velen, Raza, Anduin, a lot of them disenchanted Kazakus when Reno rotated out to have more dust to craft another decks at that time… These are just examples but realistically all f2p decisions are extremely hard and a lot of them are almost impossible to do right (as I said, even best players often predict badly).

    You either buy all cards and play the game to its full potential or you will ALWAYS struggle… especially nowadays when new card sets are being released so often.

    • Jacklsw
      October 20, 2017 at 8:42 am

      Even for me as f2p players, I keep getting duplicates after 2-3 weeks of grinding gold to buy 1 pack every day. I can only craft cards for some cheap meta decks. Hope Blizzard make a better expansion as it is frustrating to craft some cards for meta decks and then they come and nerf something.

    • BlueyesOwl
      October 20, 2017 at 3:00 pm

      F2P player has to go with budget decks.
      Many f2p players are legends with lower tier decks. Even better than others that playing tier1 only.
      Also, F2P player must craft cards that can go to more than 1 deck. For e.g. Prince is good for rogue, warlock and paladin aggro. Same goes for Patches pirate that is almost in any aggro/midrange deck.
      There are cards, as article mentioned, from classic pool that are almost everywhere, in many decks and probably for ever. Those are priority cards also. It’s hard indeed… But possible to have a great quality card pool as F2P player.

  7. Jake42
    October 19, 2017 at 5:16 pm

    hey was wondering. If I buy say 12 packs of classic the pity timer goes to 38. Then I buy 1 pack of KFT, does that reset the pity timer for the classic packs and all packs? So I would then become 39 more to get a legendary? Basically is it ok for me to switch around and buy diferent packs or does that ruin the pity timer

    • Roffle - Author
      October 19, 2017 at 5:43 pm

      Pity timers operate independently, so opening packs from another set will not impact your Class set pity timer.

  8. BlueyesOwl
    October 19, 2017 at 4:07 pm

    Great article. 🙂