Hearthstone’s draft format, Arena, is getting a major system revamp in patch 32.4. Is this new system good? Should you play the new Arena? If you should, is it better to play The Arena or Underground?
There are some changes to deck-building in the form of Legendary Groups and Re-Draft on Loss, which you may want to experience just for the fun of it. In this article, however, the focus is on rewards. Getting rewards is good both to improve your collection, and also to keep playing, because each Arena run still costs a Tavern Ticket, even two Tavern Tickets for Underground. With both collecting and continuing to play in mind, let’s examine the old rewards, the new rewards, and compare the two.
Updated June 5th: Blizzard released the full probabilities for rewards, and the calculations have been updated accordingly. The changes were not major.
Ye Olde Arena Rewards
Hearthstone wiki has a fairly complete table of the old reward system. It is only missing some of the probabilities of getting a specific one of the random rewards, and the 12-win probabilities they have are based on empirical evidence gathered by players. Any small deviations this may cause will not be large enough to impact the results of analysis.
To understand the rewards players gained from the old reward system, we need to know how many runs end at each win count, and what the rewards for each of those win counts are. Because the Arena matchmaking matches you against players of similar records, and the overall win rate of all players is 50% (someone always has to lose for someone else to win), this becomes a simple math problem.
For example, in order to go 0-3, you basically lose three coin flips in a row. The probability of that happening is 12.5% (50%, half of that is 25%, and half of that is 12.5%).
This gives us the following distribution of Arena runs:
- 0-3: 12.5%
- 1-3: 18.75%
- 2-3: 18.75%
- 3-3: 15.63%
- 4-3: 11.72%
- 5-3: 8.20%
- 6-3: 5.47%
- 7-3: 3.52%
- 8-3: 2.20%
- 9-3: 1.34%
- 10-3: 0.81%
- 11-3: 0.48%
- 12-x: 0.65%
The old system did not distinguish between 12-2 (0.48%), 12-1 (0.15%), and 12-0 (0.02%), but these will be relevant in the new system. Note how exactly 50% of runs end with a 2-3 record or worse. Only 8.98% of runs reach 7 wins. Winning in Arena is tough.
Next, we need to know the value of the Arena rewards for each win record. We are interested in both collection value, and the potential re-run value (gold or tickets that allow for another Arena run).
The collection value of rewards is a source of endless debate. In this article, I will use the following values:
- 1 dust = 1 gold
- 1 pack = 100 gold
- 1 golden pack = 400 gold
- 1 common = 5 gold
- 1 rare = 20 gold
- 1 epic = 400 gold
- 1 legendary = 1600 gold
- 1 golden common = 50 gold
- 1 golden rare = 100 gold
- 1 golden epic = 400 gold
- 1 golden legendary = 1600 gold
I am sure many will disagree, this is a topic you can get Hearthstone players to fight over at any time. The logic behind these values is that all active players will rapidly get a full collection of common and rare cards. Therefore, they are only valued at their disenchant value. A full epic and legendary collection is much more difficult to acquire, which is why they are valued at their crafting value. Golden cards are valued at their disenchant value. Card packs are valued at their store value, which is also roughly the expected amount of dust you can get from a card pack. This potentially slightly undervalues card packs compared to guaranteed epic or legendary cards, or overvalues those epic or legendary cards. You could also argue that packs of new expansions are more valuable than packs of old expansions. Collection value is inevitably subjective. Re-run value is more straightforward because it only considers assets you can use to re-enter Arena.
- 0-3: 120 gold collection value, 9.17 gold re-run value (1 pack; one of 25-30 gold, 25-30 dust, and 1 common)
- 1-3: 123 gold collection value, 10.83 gold re-run value
- 2-3: 129 gold collection value, 11.25 gold re-run value
- 3-3: 150 gold collection value, 37.5 gold re-run value
- 4-3: 179 gold collection value, 62.5 gold re-run value
- 5-3: 197 gold collection value, 72.5 gold re-run value
- 6-3: 222 gold collection value, 97.5 gold re-run value
- 7-3: 275 gold collection value, 162.5 gold re-run value
- 8-3: 391 gold collection value, 182.59 gold re-run value
- 9-3: 420 gold collection value, 212.13 gold re-run value
- 10-3: 480 gold collection value, 251.30 gold re-run value
- 11-3: 531 gold collection value, 302.30 gold re-run value
- 12-x: 617 gold collection value, 353.78 gold re-run value
From the above, we can see that in the old system, you needed to win 7 games in order to be able to afford a new Arena run. You were guaranteed at least 150 gold at that point.
For a 50% win rate player, playing the old Arena system overall gave an average of 169 gold worth of collection rewards per run, of which 48 in gold that could be spent to re-enter the Arena. For each Arena run, you needed to acquire another 102 gold elsewhere to go again because an Arena run cost 150 gold. Spending your gold on Arena was slightly more profitable than spending it directly on packs, although the time spent on the runs was also a factor unless you wanted to play Arena for its own sake.
New The Arena Rewards
The more casual form of the new Arena, The Arena, is a faster affair. You only play until 5 wins or 2 losses, not 12 wins or 3 losses. The cost of entry remains the same at one Tavern Ticket (150 gold).
In this new environment, the distribution of runs will look like this:
- 0-2: 25%
- 1-2: 25%
- 2-2: 18.75%
- 3-2: 12.5%
- 4-2: 7.81%
- 5-x: 10.9%
In The Arena, it will not matter whether you finish 5-0 or 5-1, which is why more runs end with 5 wins than with 4 wins.
What about the rewards and their value?
- 0-2: 1 pack and 25-30 dust: 128 gold collection value
- 1-2: 1 pack and 1 rare: 120 gold collection value
- 2-2: 1 pack and 70-85 dust: 178 gold collection value
- 3-2: 2 packs: 200 gold collection value
- 4-2: 1 packs and either 1 pack or 1 epic: 350 gold collection value
- 5-x: 2 packs and a Tavern Ticket: 350 gold collection value, 150 gold re-run value
There are many differences between these rewards and the old rewards. After you have collected all the Rare cards, which happens within tens of packs for a new expansion, going 1-2 is worse than going 0-2. Also, while you always got some re-run value (gold) from the old rewards, the new rewards give you none unless you reach 5 wins, at which point you get a full new run.
The overall average collection value is 186 gold, and the re-run value is 16 gold. You are able to build a collection more effectively with The Arena than with the old Arena, but you will need to gain more gold from elsewhere to keep playing.
New Underground Arena Rewards
The more hardcore Underground mode has the same win structure as the old Arena. However, the number of losses matters for your final reward, so going 12-0 is not the same as going 12-2 anymore. It should also be noted that entry costs 2 Tavern Tickets instead of 1. We already covered the distribution of Arena runs when discussing the old Arena, so what about the rewards?
- 0-3: 2 packs: 200 gold collection value
- 1-3: 2 packs: 200 gold collection value
- 2-3: 30-40 gold, 2 packs: 235 gold collection value, 35 gold re-run value
- 3-3: 45-60 gold, 2 packs: 253 gold collection value, 53 gold re-run value
- 4-3: 95-115 gold, 2 packs: 305 gold collection value, 105 gold re-run value
- 5-3: 1 Tavern Ticket, 2 packs, 1 Rare or 45-55 dust: 385 gold collection value, 150 gold re-run value
- 6-3: 1 Tavern Ticket, 2 packs, 1 Tavern Ticket or 1 Epic, 5% chance to get 2000 gold: 725 gold collection value, 325 gold re-run value
- 7-3: 2 Tavern Tickets, 2 packs, 1-2 packs or 2 Epics, 6% chance to get 2000 gold: 1095 gold collection value, 420 gold re-run value
- 8-3: 2 Tavern Tickets, 3 packs, 1-2 packs or 220-270 dust, 7% chance to get 2000 gold: 938 gold collection value, 440 gold re-run value
- 9-3: 2 Tavern Tickets, 3 packs, 2 packs or 1 Legendary, 8% chance to get 2000 gold: 1660 gold collection value, 460 gold re-run value
- 10-3: 2 Tavern Tickets, 4 packs, 1 golden pack or 1 golden Epic, 9% chance to get 2000 gold: 1280 gold collection value, 480 gold re-run value
- 11-3: 2 Tavern Tickets, 1 golden pack, 3 packs, 1 golden pack or 1 golden Epic, 10% chance to get 2000 gold: 1600 gold collection value, 500 gold re-run value
- 12-2: 2 Tavern Tickets, Portrait (or 2 Golden packs), 3 packs, 1 pack (90%) or 1 golden Legendary, 11% chance to get 2000 gold: 1870 gold collection value, 520 gold re-run value
- 12-1: 2 Tavern Tickets, Portrait (or 2 Golden packs), 3 packs, 2 packs (85%) or 1 golden Legendary, 12% chance to get 2000 gold: 2050 gold collection value, 540 gold re-run value
- 12-0: 2 Tavern Tickets, Portrait (or 2 Golden packs), 3 packs, 3 packs (80%) or 1 golden Legendary, 13% chance to get 2000 gold: 2220 gold collection value, 560 gold re-run value
There’s a lot to take in here.
First of all, the average. The average collection value for a 50% win rate player is 365 gold. The average re-run value is 97 gold. For every run of Underground, you need to find 203 gold from somewhere else to go again. This is not dependent on the unknown factors either, but it is dependent on luck in the short term because the potential 2000 gold reward from 6 or more wins plays a major part in it. Re-run values are again lower than in the old system, to the point that you can never get enough gold or tickets to secure your next two runs. In the old system, 11 wins or more gave you the resources for your next two Arena runs.
The values I assigned to the rewards are utilitarian. Because I did not place value on cosmetics (golden cards) beyond their utility as either new cards in the collection or sources of dust, the reward values jump up and down a bit at times. Getting 9 wins has the chance to get a Legendary card, which makes it jump up compared to other nearby records. If the odds of getting that Legendary turn out to be low, however, it might come down in expected value a lot.
What About Matchmaking?
One aspect that I have not discussed yet is the matchmaking system. The old system attempted to match players purely based on their win-loss record. Underground inherits this matchmaking system, but The Arena also adds an MMR-based system on top: you are matched by your record, but also by your skill.
How does this affect your expected result? The Arena should display a more consistent win-loss record between players. If you are a weak player, you can still expect to get closer to the expected 50% win rate. However, if you are a strong player, you can expect a weaker Arena record than you are used to when playing The Arena. The overall average will not change, but the distribution will. Getting those 5 wins in The Arena – the only way to get the funds for another run – will not be an easy task.
Is the New Arena Good?
Maybe.
Looking at the expected rewards, it is roughly on par with the old system for building your collection. New version of The Arena stands out as being the best choice on average, but the differences are quite minor:
- Old Arena: spend 150 gold to earn 169 gold worth of rewards (1.13 gold per gold spent)
- The Arena: spend 150 gold to earn 186 gold worth of rewards (1.24 gold per gold spent)
- Underground: spend 300 gold to earn 365 gold worth of rewards (1.22 gold per gold spent)
However, you may care more about what kind of rewards you get. If all you want to do is play Arena, getting your re-runs is harder and less consistent:
- Old Arena: spend 150 gold to earn 48 gold worth of re-runs (-102 gold per ticket)
- The Arena: spend 150 gold to earn 16 gold worth of re-runs (-134 gold per ticket)
- Underground: spend 300 gold to earn 97 gold worth of re-runs (-102 gold per ticket with a higher variance)
Or, if you wanted to get gold from playing Arena, you’re completely at the mercy of the random 2000 gold prize in Underground. This could be a situation, for example, where it is late in the expansion pack and you have acquired some Tavern Tickets and want to convert them into gold for the next expansion. That’s really hard now. Playing when the current packs mean something to you is highly preferable in the new system.
In summary:
- Play The Arena if you want to quickly convert your Tavern Tickets into something useful, and especially if you think you’re below average at Arena.
- Play Underground for a higher potential upside, especially if you are a good player.
- Going infinite or earning gold will be harder than before, but the overall rewards may be slightly better if you value cards and packs – especially early in an expansion when you miss lots of cards.
It will be interesting to see how the different matchmaking systems will affect the choice of Arena style for players. If weaker players move towards The Arena, the skill required to do well in Underground goes up compared to the old Arena. There are lots of moving pieces, some upsides, and some downsides. Ultimately, whether the new Arena is fun to play will be the most important thing.
