Earlier today, Hearthstone Data Scientist Tian Ding shared some numbers Team 5 has gathered yesterday in regards to Battlegrounds group queues.
For an average player, group queues bring almost no advantage – it’s only +0.37% for 2 players, +0.18% for 3 players and +0.77% for 4 players. If those numbers would remain consistent among all ratings, then I don’t think it would be a huge problem. Yes, it could still be worked on to tweak it a bit, but the problem would certainly be overblown.
But it turns out that the higher you go in rating, the bigger the advantage is. Looking at only 6k rating and above (roughly top 30%), it’s +2.0% for 2 players, +2.5% for 3 players and +4.5% for 4 players.
I feel like 4.5% difference in win rate is already high enough to warrant some quick changes – and I would make an educated guess that it only gets worse when you go even higher (like let’s say to 9k+ rating), where people are better at using even the smallest advantage they get and – most importantly – can group up with other skilled players, who know how to share important information or how to act when they face each other.
I hope that the problem will get fixed soon. You can read Tian’s original post below:
Hey guys! Since there are a lot of interests of knowing how group queue could bring you any advantage, I’d like to post some numbers here from yesterday’s game-play data (with some criteria applied to exclude “abnormal” games).
- If you are an average player, and you are in a group queue with your friends, your predicted win-rate gain when against solo queue players is:
+0.37% (2 players), +0.18% (3 players) +0.77% (4 players)
- If your rating is among top 30% (~6000 rating) of active players ( You’re good at this! ), and you are in a group queue with your friends, your predicted win-rate gain when against solo queue players is:
+2.0% (2 players), +2.5% (3 players) +4.5% (4 players)
Therefore statistically group queue would just bring a very small advantage at the moment. That being said, we will keep monitoring the situation closely and do some adjustments if necessary.
Enjoy Bob’s hospitality(…and forgive him if he misunderstood your thoughts) and see you in the Tavern! 🙂